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国际经济学workshop:Optimal monetary policy cooperation with a global shock and dollar standard
发布日期：2017-09-27 03:13 来源：大陆成人直播-成人直播中文
国际经济学workshop
时间：2017年9月27日（周三）10:30-12:00 pm
地点：北大国发院/中国经济研究中心小教室
主持人：余淼杰 鄢萍 余昌华 王歆
主讲人：王忏（中央财经大学金融学院）
题目：Optimal monetary policy cooperation with a global shock and dollar standard
摘要：
Contrary to the consensus in the literature, we demonstrate that there exist the welfare gains from monetary policy cooperation when the world is hit by a global shock. We reach our conclusion in a two-country New Keynesian model with a global oil shock and dollar standard. When exporters in both countries and oil producer which is modeled as a third part such as OPEC price goods in the home currency, the U.S. dollar, home monetary policy produces an negative externality to the marginal cost of foreign firms which input domestic labor and imported oil as inputs and sell consumption goods domestically. By internalizing the negative externality, a world planner can achieve the welfare gains from monetary policy cooperation. In addition, unlike what is found in the literature, we show that not all countries are willing to take part in monetary policy cooperation, unless the world planner transfers part of the welfare gains from the country which benefits from taking part in monetary policy cooperation to the one which loses by taking part in it.
We develop and estimate a structural dynamic model of trade that distinguishes the roles of productivity, materials access, and market access. Our model emphasizes the distinct effect of importing on firms' access to materials---enabling firms to either reduce materials costs or raise materials quality. We use this model to analyze the impact of tariff liberalization on industry performance. By directly affecting the incentives to import, liberalization produces dynamic effects on trade participation and the distribution of productivity that may take years to be fully realized. We estimate the model using a dataset of Chinese paint manufacturers from 2000 to 2006, and find that importing improves materials access and raises the productivity of Chinese paint manufacturers. Moreover, changing firms' incentive to import through tariff liberalization affects both importing and exporting decisions in the long run. We evaluate the effect of China's reduction in import tariffs upon joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001. Our counterfactual analysis indicates that, although the effect is mild in the short run, over 15 years this policy reduces the aggregate input price level by 2.8 percent and increases productivity by 8.6 percent. More than half of the productivity increase is attributed to firms' increased trade participation in response to the policy change. Overall, this policy increases average firm value by about 2.3 percent (2.4 million US dollars).
主讲人简介：
Chan WANG is an Associate Professor at the Central University of Finance and Economics. He received his PhD from Central University of Finance and Economics in 2013. His research interests are Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics, International Macroeconomics.
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大陆成人直播
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国际经济学workshop:Optimal monetary policy cooperation with a global shock and dollar standard
发布日期：2017-09-27 03:13 来源：大陆成人直播-成人直播中文
国际经济学workshop
时间：2017年9月27日（周三）10:30-12:00 pm
地点：北大国发院/中国经济研究中心小教室
主持人：余淼杰 鄢萍 余昌华 王歆
主讲人：王忏（中央财经大学金融学院）
题目：Optimal monetary policy cooperation with a global shock and dollar standard
摘要：
Contrary to the consensus in the literature, we demonstrate that there exist the welfare gains from monetary policy cooperation when the world is hit by a global shock. We reach our conclusion in a two-country New Keynesian model with a global oil shock and dollar standard. When exporters in both countries and oil producer which is modeled as a third part such as OPEC price goods in the home currency, the U.S. dollar, home monetary policy produces an negative externality to the marginal cost of foreign firms which input domestic labor and imported oil as inputs and sell consumption goods domestically. By internalizing the negative externality, a world planner can achieve the welfare gains from monetary policy cooperation. In addition, unlike what is found in the literature, we show that not all countries are willing to take part in monetary policy cooperation, unless the world planner transfers part of the welfare gains from the country which benefits from taking part in monetary policy cooperation to the one which loses by taking part in it.
We develop and estimate a structural dynamic model of trade that distinguishes the roles of productivity, materials access, and market access. Our model emphasizes the distinct effect of importing on firms' access to materials---enabling firms to either reduce materials costs or raise materials quality. We use this model to analyze the impact of tariff liberalization on industry performance. By directly affecting the incentives to import, liberalization produces dynamic effects on trade participation and the distribution of productivity that may take years to be fully realized. We estimate the model using a dataset of Chinese paint manufacturers from 2000 to 2006, and find that importing improves materials access and raises the productivity of Chinese paint manufacturers. Moreover, changing firms' incentive to import through tariff liberalization affects both importing and exporting decisions in the long run. We evaluate the effect of China's reduction in import tariffs upon joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001. Our counterfactual analysis indicates that, although the effect is mild in the short run, over 15 years this policy reduces the aggregate input price level by 2.8 percent and increases productivity by 8.6 percent. More than half of the productivity increase is attributed to firms' increased trade participation in response to the policy change. Overall, this policy increases average firm value by about 2.3 percent (2.4 million US dollars).
主讲人简介：
Chan WANG is an Associate Professor at the Central University of Finance and Economics. He received his PhD from Central University of Finance and Economics in 2013. His research interests are Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics, International Macroeconomics.
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