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国际经济学workshop:The Causes of China's Great Famine, 1959-1961: County-Level Evidence
发布日期：2017-10-23 12:49 来源：大陆成人直播-成人直播中文
国际经济学workshop
时间：2017年10月23日（周一）10:30-12:00 pm
地点：北大国发院/中国经济研究中心小教室
主持人：余淼杰 鄢萍 余昌华 王歆
主讲人：Bingjing Li（National University of Singapore）
题目：The Causes of China's Great Famine, 1959-1961: County-Level Evidence
摘要：This paper provides evidence that over-export of grains aggravated the severity of China's Great Famine. We collect the county-level information on the death rate, the birth rate, the procurement amount of grains, the output of different types of grains, crop productivity, weather condition, and distance to railroad in 1953-1965. We exploit the county-level variation in the types of crops each county specialized in to construct Bartik style measures for export shocks and regress the death rates on the Bartik measures. The regression result suggests that the effect of grain exports on the excess deaths is substantial, estimated at 14 percent of excess deaths in 1960. We also estimate the determination of procurement policy as well as the causal relationship between the death rates and the consumption per capita at the county-level during the famine period, and conduct counterfactual experiments to quantify the relative importance of different causes of the Great Famine. The counterfactual experiments indicate that that the effect of grain exports explains 12 percent of excess deaths, which amounts to 1/5 of the effect of increase in procurement rate between 1957 and 1959. In addition, 59 and 45 percent of excess deaths were attributed to the surge in procurement rate and the fall of agricultural production, respectively.
主讲人简介：
Bingjing Li is an assistant professor at National University of Singapore. She received her PhD from The University of British Columbia in 2016. Her research fields are mainly in International Trade, Labor Economics and Applied Microeconomics.
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大陆成人直播
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国际经济学workshop:The Causes of China's Great Famine, 1959-1961: County-Level Evidence
发布日期：2017-10-23 12:49 来源：大陆成人直播-成人直播中文
国际经济学workshop
时间：2017年10月23日（周一）10:30-12:00 pm
地点：北大国发院/中国经济研究中心小教室
主持人：余淼杰 鄢萍 余昌华 王歆
主讲人：Bingjing Li（National University of Singapore）
题目：The Causes of China's Great Famine, 1959-1961: County-Level Evidence
摘要：This paper provides evidence that over-export of grains aggravated the severity of China's Great Famine. We collect the county-level information on the death rate, the birth rate, the procurement amount of grains, the output of different types of grains, crop productivity, weather condition, and distance to railroad in 1953-1965. We exploit the county-level variation in the types of crops each county specialized in to construct Bartik style measures for export shocks and regress the death rates on the Bartik measures. The regression result suggests that the effect of grain exports on the excess deaths is substantial, estimated at 14 percent of excess deaths in 1960. We also estimate the determination of procurement policy as well as the causal relationship between the death rates and the consumption per capita at the county-level during the famine period, and conduct counterfactual experiments to quantify the relative importance of different causes of the Great Famine. The counterfactual experiments indicate that that the effect of grain exports explains 12 percent of excess deaths, which amounts to 1/5 of the effect of increase in procurement rate between 1957 and 1959. In addition, 59 and 45 percent of excess deaths were attributed to the surge in procurement rate and the fall of agricultural production, respectively.
主讲人简介：
Bingjing Li is an assistant professor at National University of Singapore. She received her PhD from The University of British Columbia in 2016. Her research fields are mainly in International Trade, Labor Economics and Applied Microeconomics.
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