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国际经济学workshop：Flight-to-quality debt crises
发布日期：2018-05-16 03:22 来源：大陆成人直播-成人直播中文
时间：2018年5月16日（周三）13：30－15：00 pm
地点：北大国发院/中国经济研究中心万众楼小教室
主持人：余淼杰 余昌华
主讲人：洪灿辉（上海财经大学）
题目：Flight-to-quality debt crises
摘要：I characterize risk averse lenders' optimal bond holdings under which flight-to-quality crises can arise when there are large differences in borrowing countries' future default risks, and do this within a dynamic, stochastic general equilibrium model. In this paper, there is a substitution effect between bonds issued by different countries because they are competing with each other on international borrowing. The relative fundamentals, rather than the absolute fundamentals, determine the magnitude of the substitution effect, and thus the direction of lenders' cross-border capital movements. Specifically, when the difference in countries' fundamentals is large enough, international lenders would like to move toward countries with relatively low future default risks, which improves these countries' borrowing conditions and deteriorates other countries'. Furthermore, the safer countries accommodate lenders' capital movements by issuing more debt, which reduces the borrowing resources available to other countries, further intensifies the difficulties faced by countries with deteriorated borrowing conditions, and may finally force these countries to default. Such forces were quantitatively important in explaining the empirical evidence from the recent European Debt Crisis: European peripheries had difficulty raising funds in international markets, while in countries such as Germany, and the United States, the yields declined and the debt positions rose since 2010.主讲人简介：洪灿辉老师是上海财经大学助理教授，2017年于明尼苏达大学取得经济学博士学位。主要研究方向为宏观经济学和国际金融。
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大陆成人直播
-
国际经济学workshop：Flight-to-quality debt crises
发布日期：2018-05-16 03:22 来源：大陆成人直播-成人直播中文
时间：2018年5月16日（周三）13：30－15：00 pm
地点：北大国发院/中国经济研究中心万众楼小教室
主持人：余淼杰 余昌华
主讲人：洪灿辉（上海财经大学）
题目：Flight-to-quality debt crises
摘要：I characterize risk averse lenders' optimal bond holdings under which flight-to-quality crises can arise when there are large differences in borrowing countries' future default risks, and do this within a dynamic, stochastic general equilibrium model. In this paper, there is a substitution effect between bonds issued by different countries because they are competing with each other on international borrowing. The relative fundamentals, rather than the absolute fundamentals, determine the magnitude of the substitution effect, and thus the direction of lenders' cross-border capital movements. Specifically, when the difference in countries' fundamentals is large enough, international lenders would like to move toward countries with relatively low future default risks, which improves these countries' borrowing conditions and deteriorates other countries'. Furthermore, the safer countries accommodate lenders' capital movements by issuing more debt, which reduces the borrowing resources available to other countries, further intensifies the difficulties faced by countries with deteriorated borrowing conditions, and may finally force these countries to default. Such forces were quantitatively important in explaining the empirical evidence from the recent European Debt Crisis: European peripheries had difficulty raising funds in international markets, while in countries such as Germany, and the United States, the yields declined and the debt positions rose since 2010.主讲人简介：洪灿辉老师是上海财经大学助理教授，2017年于明尼苏达大学取得经济学博士学位。主要研究方向为宏观经济学和国际金融。
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