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国际经济学与实证产业组织workshop:Term Structure, Forecast Revision and the Signaling Channel of Monetary Policy
发布日期：2019-04-16 12:00 来源：
时间：2019年4月16日（周二）10：00－11：30 am
地点：大陆成人直播-成人直播中文 致福轩会议室
主持人：黄益平、余淼杰、 余昌华、邢剑炜
主讲人：张东海（University of Bonn）
Title: Term Structure, Forecast Revision and the Signaling Channel of Monetary Policy
Abstract: Monetary policy shocks affect interest rates at long horizons (10 years or more). Furthermore, the private sector’s real GDP forecasts are revised upward in response to a monetary tightening. These facts challenge the prevailing theories in academic and policy circles. In this paper, I propose a micro- founded model to rationalize those facts, based on the signaling channel of monetary policy. I consider a framework where the central bank has private information about future economic conditions. Agents update their beliefs according to Bayes’ theorem. Policy actions play a signaling role, and may therefore rationalize the above empirical findings.
Speaker: Dr. Zhang is an assistant professor in the Institute for Macroeconomics and Econometrics, University of Bonn. He received his Ph.D. in economics from the Universitat Pompeu Febra. His main research interests is Macroeconomics, Monetary and Time series Econometrics.
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大陆成人直播
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国际经济学与实证产业组织workshop:Term Structure, Forecast Revision and the Signaling Channel of Monetary Policy
发布日期：2019-04-16 12:00 来源：
时间：2019年4月16日（周二）10：00－11：30 am
地点：大陆成人直播-成人直播中文 致福轩会议室
主持人：黄益平、余淼杰、 余昌华、邢剑炜
主讲人：张东海（University of Bonn）
Title: Term Structure, Forecast Revision and the Signaling Channel of Monetary Policy
Abstract: Monetary policy shocks affect interest rates at long horizons (10 years or more). Furthermore, the private sector’s real GDP forecasts are revised upward in response to a monetary tightening. These facts challenge the prevailing theories in academic and policy circles. In this paper, I propose a micro- founded model to rationalize those facts, based on the signaling channel of monetary policy. I consider a framework where the central bank has private information about future economic conditions. Agents update their beliefs according to Bayes’ theorem. Policy actions play a signaling role, and may therefore rationalize the above empirical findings.
Speaker: Dr. Zhang is an assistant professor in the Institute for Macroeconomics and Econometrics, University of Bonn. He received his Ph.D. in economics from the Universitat Pompeu Febra. His main research interests is Macroeconomics, Monetary and Time series Econometrics.
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