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题目: The Geopolitical Determinants of Economic Growth, 1960 - 2019

主讲人：Tianyu Fan (范天宇，Yale University)

时间：2025年10月16日 下午14:00–15:30

地点：承泽园229

摘要：This paper establishes geopolitical relations as a first-order determinant of economic growth. We construct a novel event-based measure of bilateral geopolitical alignment by employing large language models with web search capabilities to analyze over 440,000 political events across 196 countries from 1960–2019. This comprehensive measure enables us to identify the precise timing and magnitude of geopolitical shifts within countries over time. Using local projections with country fixed effects, we find that a one-standarddeviation improvement in geopolitical relations increases GDP per capita by 10% realized in 15 years. These persistent effects operate through multiple reinforcing channels— enhanced political stability, increased investment, expanded trade, and productivity gains. Across our sample, geopolitical factors generate GDP variations ranging from −35% to +30%, with developing nations facing particularly severe penalties from international isolation. Our findings reveal how geopolitical alignment shapes economic prosperity in an increasingly fragmented global economy.

主讲人简介：Tianyu Fan is a Ph.D candidate at Yale University. His research interests are at the intersection of macroeconomics, international trade, and economic development. Currently, he focuses on three interconnected areas: technological change and labor markets, geopolitics and geoeconomics, and unequal growth and development. Tianyu's research has appeared in Econometrica. His research has been funded by Ph.D. Dissertation Fellowship, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and the Stripe Economics of AI Fellowship.