大陆成人直播

主讲人：Fernando Broner，CREI

题目：Hegemonic Globalization

参与老师：余昌华、薛思帆、赵波、李明浩、李林橦

时间：2025年10月23日（周四）下午14:00-15:30（北京时间）

地点：132教室

摘要：

How do shifts in the global balance of power shape the world economy? We propose a theory of alignment-based “hegemonic globalization,” built on two cen- tral premises: countries differ in their preferences over policies (such as the rule of law or regulatory frameworks) and trade between any two countries increases with the degree of alignment in these policies. Hegemons promote policy alignment and thereby facilitate deeper trade integration. A unipolar world, dominated by a single hegemon, tends to support globalization. However, the transition to a multipolar world can trigger fragmentation, which is particularly costly for the declining hege- mon and its closest allies. To test the theory, we use international treaties as a proxy for alignment and compile a novel “Global Treaty Database,” covering 77,000 agreements signed between 1800 and 2020. Consistent with the theory, we find that hegemons account for a disproportionate share of global treaty activity and that treaty-signing is a leading indicator of increasing bilateral trade.

主讲人介绍：

Fernando Broner is Senior Researcher at CREI and BSE Research Professor. He is one of the directors of the Master in International Trade, Finance and Development at the BSE and teaches in the PhD program of UPF. He is a Research Fellow at the CEPR and a Co-Editor at the Journal of International Economics. He received his PhD in Economics at MIT in 2000. He has been Visiting Professor at MIT, Assistant Professor at the University of Maryland, Advisor at the Bank of Spain’s Division of International Economics, and Visiting Scholar at the IMF and World Bank. He was awarded a European Research Council Starting Grant in 2010 for the project “International Capital Flows and Emerging Markets.” His research interests include International Economics, Finance, and Macroeconomics.